If Egypt goes, so may the rest of the Arab world…

The United States government has for decades allowed autocratic regimes to rule the Arab world, provided they were supportive of U.S. foreign policies in the region.  In return for their support, the U.S. would provide military and economic aid, which in turn helped keep these regimes in power.

Arab World

Prime examples are Egypt, under autocratic rule of President Hosni Mubarak and Algeria under semi-autocratic rule of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.   Syria, which is under autocratic rule of Bashar al-Assad, could be part of that group too, but they’re generally not very supportive of U.S. policies in the region, especially in relationship to its policies towards Israel.

After World War II, the cold war shaped the region as it pitted pro-western regimes against pro-Soviet regimes and the middle-east became a chess-board for Washington and Moscow.  However, after the collapse of the iron curtain focus started shifting from keeping socialistic ideals in check to keeping Islamic extremists in check.  This is where U.S. foreign policy started failing.

Egypt Protests

By openly supporting oppressive regimes that do not adhere to human rights, let alone democratic principles such as the cancelled democratic election results in Algeria and ignoring the fraudulent elections in Egypt, the U.S. was becoming an extension of the oppressive regimes it helped keep in power rather than being a shining example of freedom of expression and democracy.

Young and educated people started to turn against western ideals and organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood were more than eager to take in the disillusioned crowd.  This shift in attitude by this large group of young people can have very dangerous consequences for the western world.  Ignoring them will only facilitate the growth of terrorist organizations.

This is the reason why the U.S. government under George W. Bush started openly promoting democratic change in the region.  We can debate as to why Iraq was invaded in the first place, but President Bush didn’t make it a secret that he wanted to replace Dictator Saddam Hussein with a democratically elected government.  Then President Barack Obama went to Egypt after he got elected President and gave a speech in Alexandria, Egypt that gave the impression to the rest of the Arab world that the U.S. may actually be serious about wanting democratic change in the region.

Sure enough, anti-government protests in Tunisia exploded, thanks in part to Facebook and Twitter and it helped in removing a corrupt President and his entourage.  But Tunisia is a small country in Northern Africa, so what’s the big deal?  Turn to today’s news; Egypt is exploding in protests, where for the first time the population from all social classes has turned to the streets and openly is protesting to have its government sacked.

President Hosni Mubarak

See the irony in all of this?

After decades of secretive supporting these oppressive regimes the U.S. finally came to the realization after 9/11 that it needs to help create a thriving middle class in the Arab world.  People with a roof over their heads, food on the table and with good paying jobs won’t become terrorists.  But try convincing the oppressive regimes to share their power and give up part of their wealth, that’s not easy, which is why the uprising in Tunisia and the street protests in Egypt are quite a dilemma for the U.S.  On one hand they want to support the people, but on the other hand the last thing it needs is another fundamental regime taken control over a strategic nation that may be adverse to the U.S.

George W Bush

The best the U.S. can hope for is that the transition will happen gradually and that whoever takes over will still want to be ‘friends’ with the U.S.  Of course, if Egypt goes and becomes democratic (and that’s still a big ‘if’), it may send a signal to other countries in the region to start making some drastic changes in order to avoid a street revolution.  At some point when you’re poor enough you just don’t care anymore and that makes it a volatile situation for governments in countries such as Yemen, Egypt, Oman, Syria, etc.

We’ll find out soon enough whether Bush’s call to democracy in the middle-east will turn out to be a historical game-changer.  Talk about giving credibility to a President ranked towards the bottom by many historians as one of the worst President in U.S. history.  Don’t be surprised his numbers will come up (talk about irony)…